Landslide or Coin Flip / design diagrams

Decision flows, supporting boards and model evidence. All shapes, labels and connected arrows are editable in the native Excalidraw files. Open a downloaded file in Excalidraw to revise it. SVG and PNG exports are ready to share.

A forecast becomes a solicitation decision

The useful output is the assumption that would change the plan.

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
A forecast becomes a solicitation decision
Read the diagram as text
  1. Choose a voting standard
  2. State turnout, support and shared-factor assumptions
  3. Simulate meetings
  4. Find the breaking assumption
  5. Record solicitation and watch triggers

The denominator changes the decision

The same meeting is evaluated against the selected standard.

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
The denominator changes the decision
Read the diagram as text
  1. Outstanding shares define the full population
  2. Participation produces cast votes
  3. Abstentions are excluded from the cast-vote denominator
  4. Evaluate for votes against cast votes or outstanding shares
  5. Apply the exact selected threshold

A denominator is part of the voting rule

The same meeting can produce different decision ratios

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
A denominator is part of the voting rule
Read the diagram as text
  1. Population: shares outstanding
  2. Participation creates for, against and abstain counts.
  3. Cast-vote ratio
    for / (for + against)
  4. Outstanding-share ratio
    for / shares outstanding
  5. Abstain is excluded from cast votes.
  6. Abstain does not reduce outstanding shares.
  7. Apply the selected threshold to its denominator.
    The two-thirds test is exact; an empty denominator cannot pass.
  8. Sensitivity asks which assumption would change the solicitation decision.

Forecast to decision / assumptions remain visible

Default seeded model check; probabilities are simulation outputs

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
Forecast to decision / assumptions remain visible
Read the diagram as text
  1. Six assumptions
    Advisor · index follow · active support · large holder · retail turnout · retail support
  2. Pre-drawn random numbers / seed 20261005 / 1,000 meetings
  3. Votes cast
  4. P(pass) = 57.3% / interval 40.4%–65.0%
  5. Shares outstanding
  6. P(pass) = 1.0%
  7. Two-thirds outstanding
  8. P(pass) = 0.0%
  9. Sensitivity + break-even → decision + three watch triggers
    Retain the decision as Markdown and JSON

Voting standards / numerator, denominator, threshold

A normalized meeting of 100 outstanding shares; abstain remains separate

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
Voting standards / numerator, denominator, threshold
Read the diagram as text
  1. Standard
  2. Ratio
  3. Pass condition
  4. Majority of cast votes
  5. For / (for + against)
  6. Above 50%
  7. Majority of outstanding
  8. For / 100 outstanding shares
  9. Above 50%
  10. Two-thirds outstanding
  11. For / 100 outstanding shares
  12. At least exactly 2/3
  13. Abstain and non-votes are excluded from cast votes.
    They remain in outstanding shares and add nothing to the for numerator.
  14. The modeled abstain share is 2% of votes. An empty denominator cannot pass.

Changing the standard changes the influential assumption

Default sensitivity sweep; swings are modeled percentage-point changes

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
Changing the standard changes the influential assumption
Read the diagram as text
  1. Rank
  2. Majority of votes cast
  3. Majority of outstanding
  4. 1
  5. Large holder voting for: 72.4 pts; break-even 90.0%
  6. Active mean support: 37.4 pts
  7. 2
  8. Active mean support: 37.1 pts; break-even 66.6%
  9. Retail turnout: 16.8 pts; 3.1× cast-vote swing
  10. 3
  11. Index follow: 17.9 pts; no break-even in range
  12. Index follow: 13.6 pts
  13. A tornado ranks influence within a stated range, model and voting standard.