What Moved First / design diagrams

Decision flows, supporting boards and model evidence. All shapes, labels and connected arrows are editable in the native Excalidraw files. Open a downloaded file in Excalidraw to revise it. SVG and PNG exports are ready to share.

Evidence before a finding

A significant association is a starting point for investigation.

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
Evidence before a finding
Read the diagram as text
  1. Align the incident and candidate signals
  2. Inspect the association scan
  3. Check whether the candidate leads or follows
  4. Compare the calm hour
  5. Name the mechanism still needing confirmation

Find the stalled handoff

Time-aligned evidence points to a process step, not just a suspicious signal.

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
Find the stalled handoff
Read the diagram as text
  1. Reference price refreshes
  2. Valuation creates a margin call
  3. Dispatch sends the call
  4. Collateral response arrives
  5. Settlement resolves the response
  6. Inspect duration at the stalled transition

From association to a process explanation

A schematic investigation sequence; no elapsed times are implied

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
From association to a process explanation
Read the diagram as text
  1. Reference
    price
  2. Valuation +
    call creation
  3. Collateral
    response
  4. Dispatch
  5. Settlement
  6. Compare waiting intervals by channel
  7. Evidence that changes the explanation
  8. Association
  9. Which signals move together?
  10. Lead / lag
  11. Which movement comes first?
  12. Calm window
  13. Does the relationship persist?
  14. Lifecycle wait
  15. Where does the process stall?
  16. A temporal lead narrows the investigation; a mechanism still needs evidence.

When / which / where / shared evidence

Scientific chart translations preserve their original inspiration references

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
When / which / where / shared evidence
Read the diagram as text
  1. Question
  2. Instrument
  3. Source field
  4. When did it move?
  5. 7 aligned series on one hour
  6. Genome browser tracks
  7. Which signal stands out?
  8. 48 dots against a corrected line
  9. GWAS Manhattan plot
  10. Where did time go?
  11. Call paths through five stations
  12. Train timetable graph
  13. Shared region: stressed hour or calm comparison hour
    Shared selection: brush region and picked signal travel across views
  14. Association and timing guide investigation; a causal mechanism needs confirmation.

Evidence gate / a finding carries its conditions

The form becomes available after the reviewer opens the required evidence

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
Evidence gate / a finding carries its conditions
Read the diagram as text
  1. Gate
  2. Behavior
  3. Retained evidence
  4. Signal selected
  5. Open lead-lag profile
  6. Peak lag and lead window
  7. Lead-lag inspected
  8. Open calm-hour overlay
  9. Scan values in both hours
  10. Both views inspected
  11. Finding form opens
  12. Facts pre-filled
  13. Mechanism + falsifier
  14. At least 40 characters each
  15. Analyst-authored explanation
  16. Finding recorded
  17. Append-only record
  18. Withdrawal is a new entry
  19. Export a postmortem excerpt with deep links to the evidence.

Three scan signals / three explanations to inspect

A corrected scan line starts the investigation; it does not establish a cause

Editable ExcalidrawSVGPNG
Three scan signals / three explanations to inspect
Read the diagram as text
  1. Candidate
  2. Temporal / comparison evidence
  3. Interpretation
  4. S1 / reference staleness A
  5. Leads calls by 45 s
  6. Priority lead; mechanism checked by a
    person
  7. S2 / gateway latency
  8. Peak at −10 s in the lag profile
  9. Following response; inspect a load
    explanation
  10. S3 / venue volatility
  11. Calm-hour −log10 p = 17.96
  12. Relationship also exists outside the
    incident
  13. Record the competing explanation and what would falsify the finding.